THE GEOGRAPHY OF FRAGILITY: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ESCALATION OF VIOLENT CONFLICT IN MALI

Keywords: Climate Change, Conflict, Drought, Environmental Security, Farmer–Herder Conflict, Governance, Intercommunal Violence, Mali, The Sahel

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Abstract: Climate change is having a detrimental effect on the global security landscape, but especially in Africa’s Sahel region. Contemporary research suggests that this region is experiencing the most pronounced effects of climate change which may be contributing to its persistent intercommunal conflicts. Such is the case of Mali, which is experiencing a dramatic climatic transformation and elevated levels of intercommunal violence. This paper examines the relationship between climate change, state fragility, and the escalation of violent conflict in Mali through the lens of environmental security. Focusing on the Sahelian context, it assesses whether long-term climatic stress functions as a conflict multiplier rather than a direct cause of violence. The study integrates 121 years (1901–2022) of temperature and precipitation data from five climate stations with georeferenced conflict data (1990–2020) derived from the Global Terrorism Database. Climate trends are analyzed using surface modeling and anomaly construction within a GIS framework, while conflict data are evaluated spatially and temporally to identify patterns of intercommunal violence. Results indicate a significant warming trend of approximately 0.82–1.06 °C and pronounced variability in precipitation, including persistent drought cycles beginning in the late 1960s. Conflict data reveal a sharp increase in intercommunal violence since the mid-1990s, with fatalities concentrated in central Mali’s Sahelian transition zone where sedentary farming and transhumant pastoralism intersect. The findings suggest that climatic stress has intensified resource scarcity and livelihood insecurity, exacerbating existing political instability and weak governance. While climate change does not directly cause violence, it amplifies underlying vulnerabilities, reinforcing the conclusion that it operates as a critical conflict multiplier.